I thought it would be helpful to review what market stats I look at and why. I see a lot of market updates that are nothing more than a weekly or monthly summary of market activity, with no comparison to the prior year; therefore, no indication of how the market is moving.
First off, everything I report comes directly from Alaska Multiple Listing Service. I do that because they have consistent procedures for handling market data and the numbers they produce are standard. They typically have data compiled for the prior month by the 5th. If you see market updates reporting before then, just know they are using data from another source, or compiling their own data, which could mean anything.
Second, the MLS reports provide monthly and year-to-date numbers as compared to the prior year for the same month and also year-to-date. So, the June numbers compare June 2020 activity to June 2019 activity and also YTD through the end of June 2020 to the same period for 2019. While I do look at the monthly numbers, the YTD are my focus. I want to see how we are tracking compared to last year. I know that the monthly numbers have a greater variance and can be misleading as a result. 2020 has made it clear why…while pending sales dropped by 40% in April (compared to April 2019) and then increased by double digits in May and again, by 48% in June, they are still down 5% for the year.
Third, the what do I track? My favorites are absorption rate, which indicates the level supply, and median sales price, which is the truest indictor of market movement.
I also report average list price and average sales price and have paid closer attention to the number of sold, pending, active and new listings simply as a result of COVID and wanting to track how the market is resuming.
Lastly, if you are seriously considering a real estate purchase or sale this year, focus on the numbers for the property type and price point you expect to be in. I report market-wide numbers, but you would want these same numbers tailored to your specific market segment.
I do publish monthly market updates for Anchorage, Eagle River and Wasilla. I am happy to discuss numbers for Palmer and the Kenai Peninsula as well, just ask.
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Check out my most current market report.